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Prospect Busts

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Here's John Sickels with a list of mid-90s prospects who didn't make it. Ron Wright (career derailed by injuries), Chad Hermansen (career destroyed by strike zone problems and also probably by Lloyd McClendon's coaching), and Jimmy Anderson are all present and accounted for.

Anderson is a funny case. Sickels had him at #46 on one of his top prospect lists, one spot ahead of Bartolo Colon. A look at their minor league stats now reveals that pick was ill-advised.

Anderson

Colon

Anderson is several months younger than Colon, but they were pitching at similar levels at similar ages. Anderson had impressive ERAs, but analysts didn't know then that when evaluating future performance, strikeout and walk rates matter more than runs allowed. Anderson was striking out way too few batters and walking too many. Add in the fact that Colon has great stuff while Anderson throws junk, and it's clear they never should have been regarded as prospects of similar caliber. If Anderson came through the minors today, he'd be regarded as a marginal prospect. Viewed through that lens, he wasn't really a bust at all.