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Community Projection: Jack Wilson

[Bumped. Newer stuff below - Charlie.]

UPDATE: The Jack Wilson projections are now closed.

This community projection and the ongoing Jose Castillo one should be the most interesting among the hitters, I think, since various fans have very different ideas about what these players' offensive capabilities are. Already in the Castillo thread, we're seeing projections that are very different from one another, and the overall community projection is going to be really different from what ZiPS had to say. (If you haven't chimed in on Castillo yet, don't look at ZiPS first.)

The tricky things with Wilson are what to make of his 2004 season and how to weigh the appendectomy excuse for his poor performance with the bat in 2005. Was 2004 fluky? If so, how fluky? Will Wilson's 2004 power return? Will he ever develop decent on-base skills? Let me know in the comments by predicting his 2006 batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage, along with anything else you'd like to predict.

Here are Wilson's statistics and lists of statistically comparable players.

The Community Projection results so far:

Sean Casey 1B .300/.361/.446 .313/.373/.441
Jason Bay LF .298/.403/.547 .297/.395/.557
Chris Duffy CF .278/.331/.395 .287/.338/.384
Jeromy Burnitz RF .246/.317/.439 .240/.311/.412

The community's projection for Casey is better than ZiPS', I think - .313 is obviously far from impossible for him, but few players hit that well for contact, and betting on a player as slow and old as Casey to do it again seems optimistic. Perhaps ZiPS is thinking that Casey's average will stay very high because he's moving to a more contact-friendly ballpark.