Let's review our projections for Oliver Perez.
|Community||160 IP, 160 K, 72 BB, 4.15 ERA|
|ZiPS||152 IP, 180 K, 74 BB, 4.32 ERA|
|Actual (With Pirates)||76 IP, 61 K, 51 BB, 6.63 ERA|
Ugh, should I even bother talking about this? Cheers to Azibuck, who guessed that Perez would have a 6.17 ERA in 73 innings. No one else was even close. However, we hadn't yet seen Perez pitch in 2006 when the projection took place, and Dave Littlefield had gone to Mexico to see Perez pitch during the offseason, and he'd said that Perez was back to normal. Obviously, that changed, or Littlefield was lying (I know what you're thinking: Not possible!), or both. In any case, Perez was horrible - his velocity was way off, his breaking ball didn't break, and so on. He got sent to Indianapolis and then to the Mets. Despite a very believable report that the Mets have fixed Perez's mechanics, Perez didn't pitch well for the Mets, either.