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Community Projection: Jason Bay!

UPDATE: The Bay projections are now closed.

Jason Bay! Who doesn't love Jason Bay? The Jose Castillo projections are a bit quiet (hint hint), partly because some people thought I wanted them to put their Castillo projections in the Jose Bautista thread, but also probably because predicting how Jose Castillo is going to do is a bit of a drag.

Well, drag no more! Jason Bay! Actually, I could see there being a fair amount of disagreement about this one - will the presence of Adam LaRoche and a full year of Xavier Nady improve Bay's numbers by preventing pitchers from throwing him junk with men on base? Or will the slight decline in Bay's numbers from 2005 to 2006 continue, moving him closer to average as he enters his 30s? I'm thinking of  Bobby Higginson here - both players are/were relatively athletic corner outfielders who entered the majors late, struck out and walked a fair amount, and had above average power. Higginson started to disappear after his age 29 season. Bay is 28 this year. Or will Bay keep it up for several more years like Tim Salmon, Bay's top PECOTA comp?

As always, let me know in the comments by predicting Bay's 2007 batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage.

The Jose Bautista projections are now closed. The thread is a pretty interesting one - it appears that no one knows what to expect. Members of the community predicted batting averages ranging from .207 to .272, on-base percentages ranging from .300 to .399, and slugging percentages ranging from .350 to .508.

Here are the final results.

Ronny Paulino C .271/.334/.414 .272/.327/.378
Adam LaRoche 1B .281/.350/.539 .279/.345/.526
Freddy Sanchez 2B .314/.360/.436 .306/.348/.432
Jack Wilson SS .273/.314/.373 .270/.312/.377
Jose Bautista 3B/OF .255/.343/.436 .255/.338/.431

Again, the community and ZiPS are very close, despite the wildly diverging responses from the community. One thing everyone seems to agree on is that Bautista isn't a high-average hitter. Well, he probably isn't, but his minor-league results are mixed. If he can somehow hit .290 or so, he'd be extremely productive, because his other hitting skills are relatively strong.