Thanks to the Stats Geek for mentioning Bucs Dugout in his column today.
If you'd like to read the post in which he's "meticulously fricasseed," click here.
As for the Geek's article this week, it's a list of things that need to go right for the Pirates to contend. It all looks fine to me (though I'd also probably add that Freddy Sanchez needs to have another season that's at least somewhat similar to his 2006). The trouble with the Geek's article, in my view, is that some of the individual elements in the list seem so unlikely that it's very difficult to imagine most of them working out, much less all of them. For example:
Yes, it's possible that the Pirates will contend, and obviously, the differences between what the Stats Geek is saying and what I'm saying are differences of degree, not kind. And if the Pirates do contend, I'll be as thrilled as anyone. But I do think we should keep our expectations in check here, and our chances of contending are theoretical at best. It's extremely rare that teams have a season in which everything goes right. And even if the Pirates did have everything go right, would they be able to win the division? 83 wins did the job last year; it probably won't this year. Last week, the Stats Geek didn't go too far overboard with his optimism, but he seemed to imply that the Bucs' chances of taking the division were better than 20-to-1. I still think they're much worse than that.