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Bill James Projections

By Charlie Wilmoth

Bill James and ACTA Sports were nice enough to allow SB Nation to use the Bill James Handbook projections for the 2009 season, so his guesses about the Pirates are posted after the jump. James projects:

-P- That Jeff Karstens will be just 15 ERA points worse than the Pirates' best starter, Paul Maholm.

-P- That Ross Ohlendorf won't be any good at all.

-P- That TJ Beam will become one of the Pirates' better relievers.

-P- That Andy LaRoche will draw 74 walks.

Enjoy. Let me know if the charts don't work on your computers; Excel isn't my forte.

 

PITCHERS

Pitcher Team Age G GS IP H HR BB SO HB W L Pct Sv BR/9 ERA
Bautista,Denny Pit 28 57 0 64 73 4 37 48 4 2 5 0.286 0 16.0 5.47
Beam,T.J. Pit 28 43 0 54 54 7 20 42 1 3 3 0.500 0 12.5 4.14
Burnett,Sean Pit 26 67 0 60 76 7 32 29 2 2 5 0.286 0 16.5 6.27
Capps,Matt Pit 25 41 0 47 45 5 6 36 2 3 2 0.600 29 10.1 3.20
Davis,Jason Pit 29 24 8 66 76 6 26 41 3 3 5 0.375 0 14.3 4.86
Duke,Zach Pit 26 28 28 180 221 17 48 92 6 8 12 0.400 0 13.8 4.84
Gorzelanny,Tom Pit 26 25 25 157 159 15 70 114 6 8 10 0.444 0 13.5 4.34
Grabow,John Pit 30 73 0 72 71 8 32 63 2 4 4 0.500 0 13.1 4.24
Hansen,Craig Pit 25 46 0 47 50 3 32 37 3 2 3 0.400 3 16.3 5.26
Karstens,Jeff Pit 26 24 24 151 167 19 46 105 3 7 10 0.412 0 12.9 4.49
Maholm,Paul Pit 27 29 29 203 216 21 69 134 9 10 13 0.435 0 13.0 4.33
Ohlendorf,Ross Pit 26 13 13 70 89 9 24 52 3 2 5 0.286 0 14.9 5.72
Osoria,Franquelis Pit 27 21 0 30 38 3 9 17 3 1 2 0.333 0 15.0 5.63
Snell,Ian Pit 27 29 29 163 173 20 67 139 3 7 11 0.389 0 13.4 4.63
Yates,Tyler Pit 31 67 0 67 66 6 36 61 2 3 4 0.429 0 14.0

4.50

HITTERS

Hitter Team Age G AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI RC RC27 BB SO SB CS SB% AVG OBP SLG OPS
Bixler,Brian Pit 26 69 193 50 8 2 2 27 17 22 3.92 16 56 11 3 0.79 0.259 0.322 0.352 0.675
Chavez,Raul Pit 36 52 122 28 6 0 1 11 13 10 2.77 5 15 0 0 0.00 0.230 0.266 0.303 0.569
Doumit,Ryan Pit 28 134 534 163 42 1 20 82 87 93 6.48 37 81 3 2 0.60 0.305 0.358 0.500 0.858
Gomez,Chris Pit 38 75 140 38 7 0 1 15 14 15 3.82 9 19 0 0 0.00 0.271 0.320 0.343 0.663
LaRoche,Adam Pit 29 151 551 149 40 1 26 76 91 92 5.94 60 135 1 1 0.50 0.270 0.344 0.488 0.832
LaRoche,Andy Pit 25 147 516 130 23 0 18 77 71 71 4.73 74 83 7 4 0.64 0.252 0.347 0.401 0.748
McCutchen,Andrew Pit 22 149 557 150 29 2 10 76 53 72 4.42 59 93 35 17 0.67 0.269 0.339 0.382 0.722
McLouth,Nate Pit 27 143 560 154 40 3 21 103 72 92 5.82 57 87 22 5 0.81 0.275 0.350 0.470 0.820
Michaels,Jason Pit 33 85 195 50 10 0 5 27 27 24 4.27 20 43 2 1 0.67 0.256 0.332 0.385 0.716
Mientkiewicz,Doug Pit 35 113 307 83 20 1 5 38 36 43 4.99 40 39 0 0 0.00 0.270 0.360 0.391 0.751
Morgan,Nyjer Pit 28 71 240 70 11 2 1 37 16 31 4.53 15 36 26 8 0.76 0.292 0.339 0.367 0.705
Moss,Brandon Pit 25 142 463 127 36 3 15 63 69 72 5.52 47 122 4 3 0.57 0.274 0.341 0.462 0.803
Paulino,Ronny Pit 28 70 184 50 11 0 4 20 24 24 4.66 15 34 1 0 1.00 0.272 0.330 0.397 0.727
Pearce,Steve Pit 26 51 114 31 9 0 4 15 18 17 5.26 8 19 3 1 0.75 0.272 0.331 0.456 0.787
Rivas,Luis Pit 29 67 163 39 7 1 3 20 16 16 3.30 11 25 4 2 0.67 0.239 0.291 0.350 0.641
Sanchez,Freddy Pit 31 148 557 163 36 2 8 73 62 74 4.87 29 64 1 1 0.50 0.293 0.332 0.408 0.740
Wilson,Jack Pit 31 132 493 135 25 2 7 57 43 58 4.18 29 52 4 3 0.57 0.274 0.321 0.375 0.696

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