Bill James and ACTA Sports were nice enough to allow SB Nation to use the Bill James Handbook projections for the 2009 season, so his guesses about the Pirates are posted after the jump. James projects:
-P- That Jeff Karstens will be just 15 ERA points worse than the Pirates' best starter, Paul Maholm.
-P- That Ross Ohlendorf won't be any good at all.
-P- That TJ Beam will become one of the Pirates' better relievers.
-P- That Andy LaRoche will draw 74 walks.
Enjoy. Let me know if the charts don't work on your computers; Excel isn't my forte.
PITCHERS
Pitcher | Team | Age | G | GS | IP | H | HR | BB | SO | HB | W | L | Pct | Sv | BR/9 | ERA |
Bautista,Denny | Pit | 28 | 57 | 0 | 64 | 73 | 4 | 37 | 48 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 0.286 | 0 | 16.0 | 5.47 |
Beam,T.J. | Pit | 28 | 43 | 0 | 54 | 54 | 7 | 20 | 42 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0.500 | 0 | 12.5 | 4.14 |
Burnett,Sean | Pit | 26 | 67 | 0 | 60 | 76 | 7 | 32 | 29 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0.286 | 0 | 16.5 | 6.27 |
Capps,Matt | Pit | 25 | 41 | 0 | 47 | 45 | 5 | 6 | 36 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0.600 | 29 | 10.1 | 3.20 |
Davis,Jason | Pit | 29 | 24 | 8 | 66 | 76 | 6 | 26 | 41 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 0.375 | 0 | 14.3 | 4.86 |
Duke,Zach | Pit | 26 | 28 | 28 | 180 | 221 | 17 | 48 | 92 | 6 | 8 | 12 | 0.400 | 0 | 13.8 | 4.84 |
Gorzelanny,Tom | Pit | 26 | 25 | 25 | 157 | 159 | 15 | 70 | 114 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 0.444 | 0 | 13.5 | 4.34 |
Grabow,John | Pit | 30 | 73 | 0 | 72 | 71 | 8 | 32 | 63 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0.500 | 0 | 13.1 | 4.24 |
Hansen,Craig | Pit | 25 | 46 | 0 | 47 | 50 | 3 | 32 | 37 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0.400 | 3 | 16.3 | 5.26 |
Karstens,Jeff | Pit | 26 | 24 | 24 | 151 | 167 | 19 | 46 | 105 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 0.412 | 0 | 12.9 | 4.49 |
Maholm,Paul | Pit | 27 | 29 | 29 | 203 | 216 | 21 | 69 | 134 | 9 | 10 | 13 | 0.435 | 0 | 13.0 | 4.33 |
Ohlendorf,Ross | Pit | 26 | 13 | 13 | 70 | 89 | 9 | 24 | 52 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 0.286 | 0 | 14.9 | 5.72 |
Osoria,Franquelis | Pit | 27 | 21 | 0 | 30 | 38 | 3 | 9 | 17 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0.333 | 0 | 15.0 | 5.63 |
Snell,Ian | Pit | 27 | 29 | 29 | 163 | 173 | 20 | 67 | 139 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 0.389 | 0 | 13.4 | 4.63 |
Yates,Tyler | Pit | 31 | 67 | 0 | 67 | 66 | 6 | 36 | 61 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0.429 | 0 | 14.0 |
4.50 |
HITTERS
Hitter | Team | Age | G | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | R | RBI | RC | RC27 | BB | SO | SB | CS | SB% | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
Bixler,Brian | Pit | 26 | 69 | 193 | 50 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 27 | 17 | 22 | 3.92 | 16 | 56 | 11 | 3 | 0.79 | 0.259 | 0.322 | 0.352 | 0.675 |
Chavez,Raul | Pit | 36 | 52 | 122 | 28 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 13 | 10 | 2.77 | 5 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.230 | 0.266 | 0.303 | 0.569 |
Doumit,Ryan | Pit | 28 | 134 | 534 | 163 | 42 | 1 | 20 | 82 | 87 | 93 | 6.48 | 37 | 81 | 3 | 2 | 0.60 | 0.305 | 0.358 | 0.500 | 0.858 |
Gomez,Chris | Pit | 38 | 75 | 140 | 38 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 14 | 15 | 3.82 | 9 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.271 | 0.320 | 0.343 | 0.663 |
LaRoche,Adam | Pit | 29 | 151 | 551 | 149 | 40 | 1 | 26 | 76 | 91 | 92 | 5.94 | 60 | 135 | 1 | 1 | 0.50 | 0.270 | 0.344 | 0.488 | 0.832 |
LaRoche,Andy | Pit | 25 | 147 | 516 | 130 | 23 | 0 | 18 | 77 | 71 | 71 | 4.73 | 74 | 83 | 7 | 4 | 0.64 | 0.252 | 0.347 | 0.401 | 0.748 |
McCutchen,Andrew | Pit | 22 | 149 | 557 | 150 | 29 | 2 | 10 | 76 | 53 | 72 | 4.42 | 59 | 93 | 35 | 17 | 0.67 | 0.269 | 0.339 | 0.382 | 0.722 |
McLouth,Nate | Pit | 27 | 143 | 560 | 154 | 40 | 3 | 21 | 103 | 72 | 92 | 5.82 | 57 | 87 | 22 | 5 | 0.81 | 0.275 | 0.350 | 0.470 | 0.820 |
Michaels,Jason | Pit | 33 | 85 | 195 | 50 | 10 | 0 | 5 | 27 | 27 | 24 | 4.27 | 20 | 43 | 2 | 1 | 0.67 | 0.256 | 0.332 | 0.385 | 0.716 |
Mientkiewicz,Doug | Pit | 35 | 113 | 307 | 83 | 20 | 1 | 5 | 38 | 36 | 43 | 4.99 | 40 | 39 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.270 | 0.360 | 0.391 | 0.751 |
Morgan,Nyjer | Pit | 28 | 71 | 240 | 70 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 37 | 16 | 31 | 4.53 | 15 | 36 | 26 | 8 | 0.76 | 0.292 | 0.339 | 0.367 | 0.705 |
Moss,Brandon | Pit | 25 | 142 | 463 | 127 | 36 | 3 | 15 | 63 | 69 | 72 | 5.52 | 47 | 122 | 4 | 3 | 0.57 | 0.274 | 0.341 | 0.462 | 0.803 |
Paulino,Ronny | Pit | 28 | 70 | 184 | 50 | 11 | 0 | 4 | 20 | 24 | 24 | 4.66 | 15 | 34 | 1 | 0 | 1.00 | 0.272 | 0.330 | 0.397 | 0.727 |
Pearce,Steve | Pit | 26 | 51 | 114 | 31 | 9 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 18 | 17 | 5.26 | 8 | 19 | 3 | 1 | 0.75 | 0.272 | 0.331 | 0.456 | 0.787 |
Rivas,Luis | Pit | 29 | 67 | 163 | 39 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 16 | 16 | 3.30 | 11 | 25 | 4 | 2 | 0.67 | 0.239 | 0.291 | 0.350 | 0.641 |
Sanchez,Freddy | Pit | 31 | 148 | 557 | 163 | 36 | 2 | 8 | 73 | 62 | 74 | 4.87 | 29 | 64 | 1 | 1 | 0.50 | 0.293 | 0.332 | 0.408 | 0.740 |
Wilson,Jack | Pit | 31 | 132 | 493 | 135 | 25 | 2 | 7 | 57 | 43 | 58 | 4.18 | 29 | 52 | 4 | 3 | 0.57 | 0.274 | 0.321 | 0.375 | 0.696 |