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Why Trading For Mark Trumbo Is A Bad Idea

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Tim writes about Mark Trumbo's trade value. There's been a ton of discussion of Trumbo here in the past week or so, but personally, I'd rather just avoid him. He's young enough that there are still a variety of possible outcomes for him, but given that the Pirates would presumably have to give up something of value to get him, I'd rather just say forget it.

Trumbo struck out five times as often as he walked last year, which helped result in his now-notorious .291 on-base percentage. He's not so young that you'd expect him to make great strides in that area, and so I think the most likely career path here is something like that of Mike Jacobs with slightly better defense - a nice guy to have around if he's cheap, due to his power, but never a star, and he'll start to become a problem once he hits arbitration.

UZR says Trumbo's defense in his rookie season was good, but he's never had much of a defensive reputation, so that seems like an area where he might regress to the mean next year. Also, as Tim points out, a player whose chief (well, pretty much only) tool is right-handed power isn't much of a fit for PNC Park. He does have a lot of power, but if his home-run total drops from 29 to 23 or so, Pirates fans are going to get frustrated pretty quickly, because he doesn't provide much else. Pass.