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Now that all the qualifying offer free agents have signed, we know that the Pirates have the 19th and 32nd picks in the June draft. Grant Brisbee of McCovey Chronicles looked at the Giants' two picks (both of which are right ahead of the Pirates', at No. 18 and No. 31) to see how those picks have performed throughout history, and that seems like a fun exercise, so here's who has gone at No. 19 and No. 32 in the past ten years.
No. 19:
2014: Nick Howard, Reds
2013: Marco Gonzales, Cardinals
2012: Michael Wacha, Cardinals
2011: Matt Barnes, Red Sox
2010: Mike Foltynewicz, Astros
2009: Shelby Miller, Cardinals
2008: Andrew Cashner, Cubs
2007: Joe Savery, Phillies
2006: Brett Sinkbeil, Marlins
2005: John Mayberry, Rangers
No. 32
2014: Braxton Davidson, Braves
2013: Aaron Judge, Yankees
2012: Jose Berrios, Twins
2011: Jake Hager, Rays
2010: Cito Culver, Yankees
2009: Tim Wheeler, Rockies
2008: Jake Odorizzi, Brewers
2007: Nick Noonan, Giants
2006: Pedro Beato, Orioles
2005: Chaz Roe, Rockies
A couple observations:
-P- If the Pirates can do as good a job with the No. 19 pick as the Cardinals have, we'll be set.
-P- It's anecdotal, but you can see in these lists the difference between picking at No. 19 and picking at No. 32. In the list of No. 19 picks, Wacha, Miller and Cashner are very good big-leaguers, and a few other recent No. 19's (particularly Gonzales and Foltynewicz) might eventually be. The list of No. 32's includes Odorizzi, a few decent prospects (Judge, Berrios, and we'll see how Davidson turns out), and that's it.
-P- Of course, we don't want to take any of this too seriously. This is way too small a sample size to draw any firm conclusions, and there have been plenty of thorough studies of draft pick value. It's also worth keeping in mind recent changes to draft pick rules, which mean teams now take players for different reasons and have different types of talents available when they do.
It seems clear, though, that the Pirates have a shot at a valuable player, particularly with the No. 19 pick. To get a sense of who might be available, let's look at the best players to be selected in the ranges of the Pirates' top picks, enlarging our sample size a bit:
Nos. 15-23
2010: Foltynewicz, Christian Yelich
2009: Miller (and the No. 25 pick was Mike Trout)
2008: Cashner
2006: Ian Kennedy
2005: Jacoby Ellsbury
Nos. 28-36
2010: Aaron Sanchez
2008: Gerrit Cole (did not sign), Odorizzi
2007: Ben Revere, Todd Frazier
2005: Colby Rasmus
Figuring out exactly who the Pirates might take next year would be fruitless at this point -- there's a lot of amateur baseball left to be played between now and June, and this far down the draft board, teams' evaluations of prospects can differ significantly from the ones you'll see in Baseball America or on MLB.com. The Pirates had the No. 24 and No. 39 picks last year, and they took Cole Tucker and Connor Joe, neither of whom were particularly highly rated by outside analysts. It's clear from looking at recent history, though, that the No. 19 pick, in particular, is plenty valuable.