This has been fairly clear for a couple weeks now, but let's go ahead and call it -- Arquimedes Caminero is going to make the team. It would be quite an upset if he didn't.
“Caminero is getting three pitches — three pitches — over the plate. That's what you have to do in the big leagues no matter if you throw 88 or 98,” (Dave) Jauss said. “A guy going two innings is probably going to need three pitches to both sides of the plate, and that's what he showed.”
Add in that Caminero is throwing 98, not 88, and the Pirates' thinking here is pretty clear. Caminero says Pirates pitching wizards Ray Searage and Jim Benedict have been helping him simplify his delivery. He's gotten great results so far this spring. Spring Training stats are even less meaningful than your average Phish lyric, of course, but when you combine a ton of strikeouts, a ton of velocity, a Searage/Benedict makeover, and a pitcher we know is trying not to get designated for assignment, I'm okay with getting modestly excited about that.
Incidentally, Travis Sawchik writes in the link above that Jared Hughes is "thought to be a lock" for a spot. We'll see if that's true -- Hughes has an option remaining, and the Pirates did option him at various points in both of the last two seasons even though he'd had some big-league success by that point. Of course, if they hold Charlie Morton back in Extended Spring Training and put both Vance Worley and Jeff Locke in the rotation, Hughes' path to a roster spot becomes a bit clearer.