FanPost

Offseason Outlook

The Pirates FO has a lot to consider over the coming weeks.

1)How do I field an even more competitive team next year, and what is my payroll structure loook like?

2) How do I excite the fan base to reverse the attendance trend?

3) What off season moves should I make?

4) How do we maximize our TV contract negotiations?

5) Which micro-trends do we want to get behind and wager they are predictive to next year?

To some of those questions, which are mostly all inter-related, I'd offer some thoughts below.

  • Currently, before arbitration and picking up everyone's options and high level arbitration estimates, the payroll looks to be about $90M. By not picking up Josh Harrison, that number drops to $80, and Jung HO's option either renegotiated or not picked up puts the Pirates at ~$75m. That leaves somewhere between $15m - $25M at max to spend for the 2019 season based on historic Pirates trends. The needs of the team currently are to improve RF while Polanco recovers, replace their historic starting SS in Jordy Mercer, and in general improve their runs scored, which at 692 runs scored was ranked #20th in MLB and probably needs an improvement of at least 50 runs to be a playoff caliber offense. Areas for improvement to me are 1)Improvement in baserunning, which per fangraphs the pirates team baserunning at -13.3 was #28 in MLB 2) New position players 3) Continued improvement from current position players
  • To address the baserunning, I think its important to look at the Yankees, Cardinals, and Dodgers for inspiration. Their SB total is all similar to the Pirates, so its not necessarily coming from faster players, but they are scoring more runs and winning more games. If the Pirates were able to go from one of the worst to league average, that would be 13 runs or about 1 win better, and if they were able to get into top quartile that would be about 20 runs or 2 wins better. I think this can come from a combination of improved coaches/coaching, but should be a specific focus for Colin Moran, Josh Bell, Corey Dickerson, and Jordan Luplow headed into the year. (Although some of this can be fixed from playing time adjustments)
  • The popular point right now is to go out and sign a starting caliber SS. Aside from Manny Machado, who even under the theory of infinite multiverses there isn't one in which the Pirates can afford him, you are looking at Asdrubal Cabrera, Eduardo Escobar, and Eduardo Nunez who project to be an uptick from Jordy Mercer offensively in 2019. I don't get the warm fuzzies out of any of them, and think the best possibility is some major team with a starting caliber SS picks up Manny Machado and the Pirates can swing a trade for the displaced SS (Didi Gregarious for example) or the Pirates trading with a pending 2019 FA SS from a non-contender. Baring that happening, I'd settle to bring in Iglesias, who as a defensive only guy I'd have to imagine is something like $6M a year. ($9m-19M left)
  • The FA outfield market has a lot of guys, and I think there will be some value to be had. With Harper, Pollock, Brantley, Adam Jones, and McCutchen, I think someone will be left out in the cold and will sign a 'value contract', and I'd like that team to be the Pirates. If not, I'd still recommend something like Curtis Granderson on a 1 year, $3-4M deal to be the 4th outfielder.
  • I'd recommend exploring a trade for Nick Castellanos. His bat has all the signs to be on the cusp of elite status, and the Tigers aren't going anywhere so may be available. He could plug into the RF opening day, or be just as bad as Colin Moran at 3B defensively.
  • While I am more optimistic than most that Colin Moran will take a step forward offensively (including the magical 'backing off the plate'), I'm still worried about his defensive capabilities. Additionally, at 6'4 listed at 205, if he isn't a defensive wizard now, I'd like to see if he could add 10-15 lbs of muscle this off-season to show up at 6'4 225 and would be a believer in potential for more power
  • From a SP perspective, I'd like to explore parting with Nova, and working to acquire Sonny Gray from the Yankees. I think Gray is the type of pitcher who would actually improve in the Pirates pitching philosphy and would be about a net neutral to spending.
  • I'm not sure how much they have in their international spending pool, and unlikely to make a splash with any of the Cuban players, I actually like the Pirates to try to sway Po-Jung Wang, a 24 year old Chinese Professional Basebal League player. It would be a gamble, but probably a low risk gamble in terms of dollars. Plus this:
  • <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Monkeys 王柏融 (Wang Po-Jung) monster bat flip after hitting his 2nd homer of the season. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Lamigo?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Lamigo</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/CPBL?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#CPBL</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/BatFlip?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#BatFlip</a> <a href="https://t.co/7WMjvQH7JY">pic.twitter.com/7WMjvQH7JY</a></p>— CPBL STATS (@GOCPBL) <a href="https://twitter.com/GOCPBL/status/853790132314361856?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 17, 2017</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Tell me what you think - Did I get anything wrong? Anything right?

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