FanPost

Team Advanced Stats and Adjusted Individual Stats


In my last post, which you can read here, I discussed some of the issues with minor league stats and presented one year park factors for teams in the divisions of the Pirates' AAA and AA affiliates. Today, I'll add a few more advanced team numbers (wRAA, wRC, wRC+), as well as park-adjusted metrics for Pirates AAA and AA players in Indianapolis and Altoona.

If you're unfamiliar with these numbers, I recommend checking out FanGraphs. You can read about wRAA here, and wRC and wRC+ here. As a note, for wOBA, I used the basic weights outlined here, then calculated my own version of the wOBA scale to set the wOBA average to .313.

Team ML wRAA wRC wRC+
Indianapolis Indians PIT 89 672 124
Durham Bulls TBR 58 638 114
Louisville Bats CIN 27 602 112
Norfolk Tides BAL -15 566 106
Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders NYY 35 605 106
Toledo Mud Hens DET -4 578 104
Columbus Clippers CLE 24 614 102
Syracuse Chiefs WSN -25 562 97
Lehigh Valley IronPigs PHI 26 610 97
Buffalo Bisons TOR -10 559 96
Pawtucket Red Sox BOS -42 542 93
Gwinnett Stripers ATL -25 547 88
Charlotte Knights CHW -22 559 84
Rochester Red Wings MIN -116 454 79

As you can see, the Pirates AAA affiliate had the most efficient offense after adjusted for stadiums. They produced 89 runs above an average team, and were a full 10% better than the next best team. Not too shabby.

Here are the numbers for the Western Division of the Eastern League (confusing, I know), which is where the Altoona Curve, the Pirates' AA affiliate, play.

Team ML wRAA wRC wRC+
New Hampshire Fisher Cats TOR 113 741 120
Akron RubberDucks CLE 13 643 115
Altoona Curve PIT -5 604 107
Binghamton Rumble Ponies NYM 9 628 107
Portland Sea Dogs BOS 9 629 103
Bowie Baysox BAL 32 646 102
Harrisburg Senators WSN 0 614 100
Richmond Flying Squirrels SFG -81 505 99
Trenton Thunder NYY -28 587 98
Erie SeaWolves DET 9 635 98
Reading Fightin Phils PHI -25 575 89
Hartford Yard Goats COL -48 546 83

Altoona still checks in with an above-average offense in spite of the fact that its wRAA is slightly negative. They're not particularly elite, but it's encouraging they're at least not in the red. (Note: wRC+ includes an adjustment for park factor, whereas wRAA and wRC don't; I assume this is where the discrepancy comes from. If someone smarter than me knows of a different/better explanation, feel free to let me know.)

Now, let's look at the Pirates minor league players. Below are all of the Pirates' AAA players with at least 100 plate appearances. All numbers are per FanGraphs except for the last one, which is my wRC+ adjusted for park factor. As you can see, the park adjustment adds about 8 points from the unadjusted wRC.

30-year-old Ryan Lavarnway and Jose Osuna, who appeared in 51 games last season, lead the AAA team in wRC+. It also seems worth noting that, while Kevin Kramer posted an excellent wRC+ of 149, that number is boosted by an extremely high BABIP of 0.392, which is likely unsustainable.

Also high-up on this list is Jordan Luplow, who was recently traded to Cleveland in the deal for Erik Gonzalez.

Name Age PA AVG OPS BABIP wRAA wOBA wRC+ PF wRC+
Kevin Kramer 24 527 0.311 0.856 0.392 24.1 0.378 141 149
Kevin Newman 24 477 0.302 0.758 0.333 7.3 0.338 114 122
Pablo Reyes 24 398 0.289 0.776 0.338 7.9 0.344 118 126
Jordan Luplow 24 357 0.287 0.829 0.336 13.5 0.367 134 142
Jose Osuna 25 342 0.321 0.875 0.353 17.6 0.385 146 154
Christopher Bostick 25 327 0.295 0.787 0.367 8.1 0.350 122 131
Eric Wood 25 308 0.269 0.808 0.335 9.4 0.358 127 136
Ryan Lavarnway 30 303 0.288 0.860 0.338 15.4 0.384 145 154
Max Moroff 25 297 0.223 0.727 0.270 2.5 0.330 108 116
Wyatt Mathisen 24 282 0.248 0.743 0.285 3.2 0.333 110 119
Jacob Stallings 28 278 0.285 0.749 0.343 3.5 0.335 111 120
Erich Weiss 26 236 0.234 0.682 0.289 -2.4 0.306 91 100
Jason Martin 22 234 0.211 0.589 0.261 -9.2 0.268 65 74
Jerrick Suiter 25 219 0.204 0.597 0.303 -8.5 0.269 65 74
Austin Meadows 23 179 0.279 0.712 0.314 0 0.319 100 109
Adam Frazier 26 137 0.223 0.586 0.262 -5.3 0.269 66 74

The same numbers for their AA affiliate are here.

Name Age PA AVG OPS BABIP wRAA wOBA wRC+ PF wRC+
Cole Tucker 21 589 0.259 0.689 0.310 -4.6 0.315 93 102
Will Craig 23 549 0.248 0.768 0.288 6.8 0.341 110 119
Ke'Bryan Hayes 21 508 0.293 0.819 0.344 17.7 0.369 129 137
Stephen Alemais 23 463 0.279 0.692 0.326 -2.4 0.319 96 104
Logan Hill 25 444 0.228 0.715 0.293 -1.1 0.322 98 106
Jordan George 25 392 0.263 0.698 0.293 0.6 0.327 101 109
Bryan Reynolds 23 383 0.302 0.819 0.362 12.9 0.368 128 136
Christian Kelley 24 347 0.235 0.675 0.270 -4.3 0.309 90 98
Jason Martin 22 289 0.325 0.913 0.396 17.9 0.403 152 160
Bralin Jackson 24 219 0.214 0.557 0.291 -12.5 0.253 52 60
Tyler Gaffney 27 147 0.194 0.611 0.221 -3.7 0.293 79 87
Jin-De Jhang 25 135 0.320 0.783 0.352 2.8 0.351 117 126
Alfredo Reyes 24 121 0.250 0.634 0.371 -3 0.293 79 87
Elvis Escobar 23 111 0.151 0.382 0.188 -13.2 0.174 0 8

A few interesting notes here. I've highlighted Cole Tucker and Jason Martin here, as they were recently added to the 40-man roster ahead of the Rule 5 draft. Martin actually produced an impressive OPS of 0.913 and a wRC+ of 160, although, like Kramer, his numbers are likely helped by an unsustainable BABIP. It'll be interesting to see what he does next season.

Also, in case you're interested, another Rule 5 protectee, Mitch Keller, posted a park factor adjusted wRC+ of -7 and 71 in AA and AAA respectively, in 19 and 7 plate appearances.

Next week, I'll try to post the league leaders for wRC+, so we can see where the Pirates minor leaguers stack up against other prospects. I'll also get started on my early estimates for minor league WAR.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the managing editors or SB Nation. FanPosts are written by Bucs Dugout readers.