FanPost

The 10th pick

The Pirates have the 10th pick in the 2018 Draft. That's the first top-ten pick the team has had since it took Austin Meadows 9th (2013). PP (sub required) recently gathered the pundit take on this draft class and found that Ryan Rolinson (a draft-eligible LH pitcher) and Jarrad Kelenic (prep LH outfielder) were the early favorites for the Pirates.

That's fine, but what does the recent historical record tell us about the pick. How valuable is this pick? The record shows us that the tenth pick can return stars (MadBum, The Freak, Robin Ventura) and duds.

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I included a bit of David Freese analytics (baby statistics) in my chart. It shows the average WAR per pick to be quite low (12.4). But the standard deviation is quite large (14.5). (When calculating the average and standard deviation for player WAR, I did not include players lacking ML playing time since these players are outliers and include recent draft picks. The average value would be smaller and the deviation larger if I had included them.) The returns for the pick can thus be considered haphazard, at best, although a sample size of 30 (24 including those lacking service time) is not especially large. That said, luck plays a part in a team's success. Notice that the Giants, a team not known for its draft savvy scouting, gained Madison Bumgarner and Tim Lincecum in successive drafts. Together they helped lead the Giants to three World Championships (2010, 2012, 2014) over the past decade. Buster Posey also fell to the Giants, for which they are undoubtedly grateful.

It's better to be lucky than good.

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