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What to expect from Dario Agrazal

Dario Agrazal
milb.com

The Pirates have recalled right-handed starting pitcher Dario Agrazal, and he is scheduled to make his major league debut against the Marlin in Miami on Saturday.

The 6-2, 240 pound Panamanian, at age 24, is in his seventh season in the Pirates organization. He’s been steadily progressing, generally a level a year, reaching Triple-A Indianapolis last month after opening the season with four starts for Altoona. Combined, he has a 5-3 record and 3.27 ERA so far in 2019.

Agrazal’s main feature is his control, even if he doesn’t miss many bats. He’s never walked more than 18 in a season (in 150 IP for Low-A West Virginia in 2016), and this year has issued only 10 free passes vs 58 strikeouts in 74 13 innings.

MLB offers this assessment:

At his best, Agrazal fills up the strike zone and gets a ton of ground-ball outs. His power sinker will touch 95-96 at times and sit in the low 90s, which has led to a career 1.48 GO/AO ratio entering the 2018 season, a rate that rose to 1.80 in 2017. Agrazal doesn’t miss a ton of bats, but he never hurts himself with walks as evidenced by his 1.3 BB/9 ratio in the Minors. He has a decent feel for a changeup and can spin a breaking ball, though they typically grade out as fringe-average secondary offerings.

Raw stats

Year Age Level    Team           ERA   G GS    IP    H  R  ER  HR  BB  SO
2013  18 F-Rk     Pirates-2     2.40  13 12  60.0  57  21  16   2  17  32
2014  19 Rk       Pirates       4.20  12 12  55.2  65  30  26   3   5  34
2015  20 SS-A     Morgantown    2.72  14 14  76.0  71  27  23   3  11  45 
2016  21 Low-A    West Virginia 4.20  27 27 150.0 173  80  70  18  18  88
2017  22 High-A   Bradenton     2.91  14 13  80.1  73  34  26   4  10  63
2017  22 Double-A Altoona       4.50   1  1   4.0   3   2   2   0   2   2 
2018  23 High-A   Bradenton     0.00   2  2   8.0   3   0   0   0   0   4
2018  23 Double-A Altoona       3.99  15 14  85.2  91  41  38   9  13  52
2019  24 Double-A Altoona       3.60   4  4  25.0  29  10  10   3   0  19
2019  24 Triple-A Indianapolis  3.10   8  8  49.0  38  19  17   4  10  39 

Here is Oliver’s age adjusted MLEs for Agrazal

Year Age  BFP  GB% wOBA  BA/ OB/ SA  BH% HR% BB% SO% 
2013  18  272 47.7  385 309/356/551  310 059 065 117
2014  19  238 53.5  346 301/312/510  313 044 022 138
2015  20  361 59.5  312 259/299/424  286 036 039 170
2016  21  637 49.3  369 313/337/533  326 053 029 139
2017  22  335 55.3  283 245/275/381  282 033 036 202
2018  23  420 51.3  362 299/340/510  309 248 042 146
2019  24  287 51.7  317 254/282/468  279 058 036 204

And Oliver’s 2019 projection after each season

Year Age Size  ERA wOBA  BA/ OB/ SA  WHIP  H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 
2013  18  220 6.29  387 303/376/527  1.74 11.0  1.7  4.1  5.7
2014  19  350 5.14  356 286/344/484  1.51 10.2  1.4  3.1  5.7
2015  20  542 4.72  343 278/332/463  1.44  9.8  1.3  2.7  6.2
2016  21  886 5.01  354 291/335/497  1.45 10.4  1.5  2.1  5.7 
2017  22  876 4.46  336 275/323/459  1.37  9.7  1.3  2.2  6.4 
2018  23  948 4.88  350 284/334/481  1.45 10.1  1.5  2.4  6.0
2019  24 1087 4.48  339 273/318/474  1.35  9.6  1.5  2.1  6.5

The projections have been consistent since 2015, seeing a 4/5 pitcher with good control who throws ground balls but not many K’s and can get tagged with a long ball when he gets the ball up.

In other words, Ivan Nova.