The way I am deciphering BC's plan is as follows:
1. Writeoff 2020 and 2021 as lost seasons.
2. Trade any decent players (Marte and Bell) for prospects who will be ready in 2022/2023.
3. Target 2022 as the year when the 1st batch of prospects come up. Fill in with cheap veterans when possible. Preferably ones that can be flipped by the trade deadline. Maybe catch lightning in a bottle once in awhile (Quintana, Bednar, etc.).
4. Bring up the 2nd batch of prospects in 2023/2024 to start building a winning core for a playoff caliber team in 2025. Start signing the young players to long term contracts to buy out arbitration and 1st FA years.
5. From 2025 onward, use prospects as the core and add limited FAs as needed to fill in the gaps.
If this is the plan, then steps 1-3 were completed as planned. Now we will see if the prospects obtained thru drafts and trade can create a strong core for 2025 and beyond. We will also see if BC can get FAs (and $s) to fill in around a core as needed. This will require BC to convince FAs that the Bucs are serious so they want to come to Pittsburgh.
Assuming this is the plan, do you think he can accomplish it? I am skeptical that enough prospects will pan out. However as we saw with NH, you don't have to have every prospect be an All Star to have a competitive team. If the Bucs had added a few FAs after 2013, they could have go much further in the playoffs the next few years.
The game has changed in the last few years. No team seems to make it to the World Series w/o at least a few All Stars and big money players on the team. Will Nutting cough up the $s to keep key players and add FAs? I am skeptical he will.
IMHO, 2023 is the critical year for BC's plan. Either the prospects start to pan out causing the team to dramatically improve OR the prospects are busts resulting in BC being fired.