FanPost

Next Player to Reach 3000 Hits

A little while ago, Miguel Cabrera reached 3000 hits for his career. It took him 20 seasons and 11141 PA with a BA of .310 for his career to reach that milestone. He exceeded 200 hits in a season once in his career and had over 150 hits in a season 12 times. Contrast that with Roberto Clemente who collected 3000 hits in 18 seasons with 10212 PA. Surpassing 200 hits in a season 4 times and 150 hits 12 times. The Great One's career BA was .317.

I mention the above to set the bar. To reach 3000 hits a player has to have 200 hits a season for 15 seasons or 150 hits for 20 seasons. Just for reference, in 2021 no player had 200 hits but 42 had 150 or more. In 2019, 2 players exceeded 200 hits and 59 had 150 or more.

If I look at the active hit leaders for players who have 1500 hits and are age 30 or less, there are none. However Manny Machato and Mike Trout will both have 1500 hits or more by the end of their age 30 season. They could reach 3000 hits by their age 40 seasons by averaging 150 hits a season for the rest of their careers. Given Trout's injury issues, he might be hard pressed to play for 10 more years.

Elvis Andrus (age 33) could have 2000 hits by the end of the season. He would then have to average over 140 hits a season thru his age 40 season to reach 3000. Bryce Harper is still under 30 but needs to average over 167 hits per season for the next 10 season to reach 3000.

Altuve has a shot as he is 32 and needs 1200 more hits. Averaging 150 hits a season thru age 40 would do it for him. Freddie Freeman is in a similar situation needing 1247 hits and is in his age 32 season. Averaging 150 hits a season thru age 40 would also do it for him.

The player closest to 3000 hits (who has not reached it) is Robinson Cano. However he is 39 and needs 365 more hits. Given his age, his chances don't look good. The last time he had at least 150 hits in a season was 2017.

Joey Votto is age 38 and is still almost 1000 hits away.

Looking at the numbers, I see no active player with a lock for 3000 hits right now. The DH in both leagues will help. Having 3000 hits for a career is quite a milestone. It requires both longevity and sustaining a high level of performance over a whole career. There are 33 players presently in the 3000 hit club. I don't see that club growing any time soon. Let's circle back to this topic in 2030.

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